AGP Executive Report

Food Prices Under Pressure: The UN FAO says global food prices rose in August to the highest since late 2022, driven by Europe’s heat and drought, Black Sea trade disruption, and Middle East tensions—pushing grain to three-year highs and cutting its 2026 cereal output forecast. Heat Hits European Farming: Italy logged its hottest summer since 1950, with drought and heat stressing agricultural regions; France’s champagne production is forecast to fall nearly in half after extreme weather. Wine Sector Shock: France’s wider wine output is also expected to drop sharply, with Champagne and Burgundy hit hardest by early harvests and crop losses. EU Policy Push: The European Commission set out a 2040 strategy for agri-food research and innovation, aiming to steer innovation for the long run. Animal Health Watch: France faces new salmonella fallout after pumpkin-seed-related cases, adding pressure to food safety monitoring. Trade Tensions Spill Over: UK-led settlement trade bans are expanding, with Israel retaliating by closing the British consulate—an issue that also touches agricultural exports.

UK-Israel Trade Reset: Britain says it will announce a ban on goods made in Israeli West Bank settlements, framed as support for a two-state solution, with the US expected to oppose and Israel already reacting. Heatwave Impacts on Wine: France is forecasting its weakest wine output in 30 years, with Champagne hit hardest as drought and extreme heat push harvests earlier and cut volumes sharply. Food Prices Under Pressure (Spain): Northern Spain shoppers are seeing higher prices for fruit, vegetables, meat and eggs, with farmers pointing to a mix of heat effects plus energy, transport and supply-demand changes. Water Stress (UK): Hosepipe bans remain in force across 10 English water regions, affecting around 30 million people despite heavy late-August rain, as reservoir storage stays low. Farm Sector Pricing (Bulgaria): Bulgaria’s fruit and vegetable sector is calling for “fair value” rules that protect producers’ costs and require markups, arguing retail-only controls miss the real drivers across the supply chain. Agri Business Expansion (Baltics): Estonia’s Infortar is buying Lithuania’s Litagra to expand milk, crops and poultry production, adding thousands of animals and more farmland. Farm Machinery (EU): Claas has launched a new Arion 5 Cmatic tractor range (145–180hp) aimed at compact, manoeuvrable field work.

Heatwave-hit wine: France’s Champagne output is forecast to plunge by about 48% in 2026 versus the 2025 average, with the wider French wine harvest down 6% and expected to be the lowest in three decades, as drought, hail and early heat-driven harvesting bite. Food safety: The US issued a Class I recall for imported Italian pork guanciale (about 1,500 pounds) after Listeria was found in routine testing; no illnesses reported so far. EU CAP access: The European Commission says no CAP payments are made to farmers in parts of Cyprus not controlled by the Republic, citing administration under the island’s 2023–2027 CAP Strategic Plan and ongoing foot-and-mouth measures. Farm cashflow & climate: Barry Callebaut and Arla launched a farm-level dairy emissions partnership using farm data plus incentives, while the Commission also suspended Agrofert subsidy payments in Cyprus-related and broader enforcement coverage. Baltic grain pressure: Latvia plans a 300% tariff on transit of Russian and Belarusian grain through Latvia, with checks and lab cooperation aimed at blocking grain linked to occupied Ukrainian areas.

Heat & drought hit European farming: France expects one of its worst wine harvests in 30 years, with production forecast at 33.9m hectolitres after summer drought and heatwaves scorched vines and cut yields; Champagne and Burgundy-Beaujolais are also set for sharp drops. CAP & young farmers: Ireland’s IFA president Francie Gorman argues CAP young-farmer support should favour lump sums over per-hectare top-ups, warning that area payments can inflate land prices instead of helping new entrants invest. Farm resilience under extreme weather: A UK farm management pocketbook update says profits were strong in 2025, but chronic pressures are mounting—especially weather extremes, higher fertilizer, labour and energy costs. Wildfires worsen air quality: The UN’s WMO warns that heatwaves and wildfires are undermining air-quality gains as smoke boosts harmful PM2.5 exposure, with health impacts rising even where industrial emissions have fallen. EU policy logistics: EU agriculture ministers meet in Dublin with traffic and drone restrictions in place around the venue. Conservation with an agriculture link: Turtle doves have been released in Hampshire’s South Downs as part of urgent efforts to restore habitats for a species in steep decline.

Food Safety Shock (France): France recorded 81 Salmonella cases linked to pumpkin seeds, traced to a processing facility in Lot-et-Garonne, triggering recalls mainly via Grand Frais while investigators continue to pinpoint the contamination source. Heat & Farm Losses (UK): Record heat and drought have scorched flower fields, forcing growers to pull out of markets because they “have got nothing to sell,” with concerns that imports may fill the gap. Livestock Disease Watch (UK): The UK updated bluetongue guidance as BTV-3 cases rise to 995 for the 2026–27 season, with vaccination urged amid ongoing spread risk from midges. CAP & Policy (EU): CAP future discussions took place with an EU Commissioner at a Dublin farm, keeping focus on how the next policy cycle will support farmers. Farm Economy & Inputs (Germany/Europe): German farmers are shouldering losses as drought, extreme heat and scant rain become routine, adding pressure to already tight margins. Trade & Regulation (EU): EU action on Brazilian meat and honey imports over antimicrobial rules continues to reshape agri-food trade flows and compliance priorities. Water & Resilience (Europe): Drought is also driving calls for faster irrigation and water infrastructure, with Ireland highlighting urgent needs as weather extremes intensify.

EU Drought Response: France has unveiled a €1bn farm aid package after record heatwaves and drought, as drought hits farming and adds pressure to already stretched budgets. Trade Shock for Farmers: The EU’s suspension of Brazilian meat and honey imports over antimicrobial concerns is escalating a dispute, with UK livestock groups warning cheaper imports could undercut standards and undermine disease-control progress. Animal Health Watch: UK farmers are bracing for bluetongue spread, with one farmer urging vigilance as outbreaks move and vaccine availability/prices become a concern. Invasive Species Alert: North East Lincolnshire residents are told to remain vigilant after an Asian hornet sighting in Immingham, with the threat to bees highlighted. Food System Stress: Research links climate-driven harvest declines and conflict risk, pointing to how extreme weather and disrupted supply chains can fuel instability. Market Signals: Global food prices are reported at the highest since 2022, while Russia’s grain export delays are squeezing supply and export revenues. Local Adaptation: Nepal’s flood recovery planning includes damage to agricultural land and hydropower projects, with reconstruction funding expected to rely on donors.

Climate & Food Prices: The UN FAO says world food prices rose in August to the highest since late 2022, driven by extreme heat and drought in Europe, Black Sea shipping worries, and El Niño risk—pushing grain to three-year highs and lifting sugar and other staples. Weather Shock for Farmers: A “super El Niño” is forecast to intensify, with warnings it could push tens of millions more into hunger; for farming regions, timing and rainfall swings could be especially damaging. EU Farm Support & Incomes: Greece’s PM Mitsotakis unveiled a tax-and-wage package ahead of elections, including zero income tax for low-income farmers and measures aimed at easing cost-of-living pressure. Pesticide Compliance Push: Nigeria’s NEPC trained 70 smallholders in Adamawa on safe pesticide handling and storage, citing EU rejections tied to residue exceedances. Animal Health & Rural Livelihoods: Greece also flagged livestock farmers’ strain from outbreaks including sheep and goat pox and foot-and-mouth disease.

Drought Pressure on EU Farms: Visegrad countries (Poland, Hungary, Czechia, Slovakia) urged the EU to act fast with unified drought relief after sharp yield drops and feed shortages, warning dairy and breeding are at risk. Heatwave Fallout in France: France announced a €1bn package to help drought-hit farmers after record heat, as the wider European summer strain continues to hit grass and livestock conditions. Food Safety Alert: France reported a salmonella outbreak linked to pumpkin seeds, with 81 cases across regions and product recalls underway. Trade Shock for Agriculture: EU suspends Brazilian meat imports over antimicrobial concerns, escalating a dispute that could ripple into European supply and prices. Global Food Prices Jump: FAO said global food prices hit the highest level since late 2022, citing weather disruptions and war-related supply pressures. UK Poultry Consolidation: A report claims just a few firms dominate UK poultry supply, raising concerns about vertical integration and pressure on farmers. Aquaculture Health (Israel): Israeli scientists found carp can resist a deadly virus, a potential boost for carp farmers ahead of Rosh Hashanah demand.

Drought relief in focus: France has unveiled a €1bn+ package for drought- and heat-hit farmers, aiming to speed payments, support the most vulnerable farms, and help cover costs like seeds and fodder. Regional drought pressure: Visegrad Four farm bodies (Poland, Hungary, Czechia, Slovakia) urged the EU to act fast as extreme drought cuts fodder yields and threatens livestock and food security. Animal health alert: Ireland confirmed a new bluetongue case in Wexford and reiterated vaccination guidance for herds, urging farmers to report unexplained deaths. Food price squeeze: The UN FAO says global food prices rose in August to the highest since late 2022, driven by Europe’s heat and drought plus war-linked supply disruptions. Security meets farming tech: A UK report warns British agriculture is exposed to “hidden security risk” from internet-linked machinery, including potential spying via Chinese chips. Trade shock for EU meat: EU suspends Brazilian meat and honey imports over antimicrobial concerns, with Brazil signaling possible reciprocal measures.

Weather & Food Security: France announced €1bn+ in aid for weather-hit farmers after record heatwaves and drought, with rapid payments plus longer-term support for seeds, feed and tax/social-security relief. The UK also faces rising risk of empty shelves as a watchdog warns Defra’s emergency plans aren’t detailed or tested for catastrophic disruption, with extreme weather, cyber threats and disease all flagged. Climate Shock: The UN weather agency says El Niño is “off the charts” and near-certain to persist into Feb 2027, raising the odds of floods, drought and extreme heat across Europe. CAP & Farm Incomes: Ireland’s IFA urged immediate cash supports amid a fodder crisis, calling for faster delivery of EU-linked funding and bringing forward payments. EU Trade & Meat Rules: The EU’s Brazilian meat ban over compliance concerns is now in force, with livestock groups demanding firmness and farmers watching impacts on prices and supply. Policy & Governance: Moldova’s MPs clashed over temporary licensing rules for agricultural imports, with critics saying the system favors large exporters and input suppliers. Energy Transition & Land Use: Romania pushed for a bigger EU budget with strong Cohesion and Agriculture funding, while Community of Madrid rejected a data-center decree as it could hinder investment—an indirect pressure point for rural land and utilities planning.

EU trade shock for beef: The EU has halted imports of Brazilian beef and poultry over standard concerns tied to antibiotic and antimicrobial use, with Irish and EU farmers calling it a major win and expecting price support as producers try to fill the gap. Health policy ripple: California moves to phase out paraquat after health-linked concerns, raising questions for farm chemical choices and compliance burdens. Water governance update (Ireland): The Department of Agriculture published 46 catchment overview reports under the Water Framework Directive, clarifying ecology/soil/land data ahead of 2027 “good status” goals and derogation-related habitat checks. Animal health & feed pressure: Drought and heat are increasingly squeezing EU feed supplies, adding strain for livestock sectors already dealing with weather-driven production swings. Farm tech & productivity: EBRD-backed financing in Kazakhstan targets organic crop exports and lower fertiliser and water use, while precision-ag and monitoring themes keep surfacing across Europe’s ag innovation push.

El Niño Watch: The UN weather agency says El Niño is set to intensify into a “very strong” event and likely persist through February 2027, raising Europe’s risks of drought, floods and extreme heat. EU Meat Trade: Ireland’s farmers’ group welcomed the EU ban on Brazilian beef and poultry, saying Brazil can’t prove compliance on banned antibiotics/hormones—while warning of knock-on pressure on UK-bound supplies. Fertilizer Supply Chains: Multilateral development banks urged stronger, more resilient fertilizer supply chains to protect food security, including better nutrient efficiency, soil health and diversified nutrient sources. Food Safety Policy: Sri Lanka launched a National Food Safety Policy with FAO support via an EU-funded programme, aiming for science- and risk-based controls across the food chain. CAP & Food Affordability: Scotland opened consultation on statutory price controls for a basket of staples like bread, milk and eggs, targeting affordability for households under cost-of-living strain. Aviation for Perishables: Kenya Flower Council called for a national aviation contingency protocol after a strike at Nairobi’s JKIA disrupted perishable exports and left a major cargo backlog.

CAP Reform Tensions: EU member states are leaning toward resisting a tighter “active farmer” definition for the 2028–2034 CAP, with Ireland expected to present updated proposals to reduce payment uncertainty for part-time farmers. Water & Nitrates Compliance: Ireland’s DAFM published catchment overview reports to support the EU-required appropriate assessments for its nitrates derogation extension to 2028, covering 46 river catchments and drawing on EPA and other agencies. Armenia Trade Pivot: The EU Council backed temporary trade liberalisation for Armenian products, covering about 80% of exports to the bloc after Russia imposed new import restrictions; the move comes as Putin warns Armenia’s EU path conflicts with staying in the EAEU. Heat Stress on Farming: Britain recorded its hottest summer on record, with drought and heatwaves raising fresh concerns for agriculture and water supplies. Invasive Species Fight (Italy): Italian researchers released tens of thousands of lab-hatched baby octopuses to help curb invasive blue crabs in the Adriatic, after major ecological and economic damage. Ag Tech & Inputs: Bayer says it is entering a phase of blockbuster agricultural launches, including digitally enabled crop systems and new insecticide products.

Drought Pressure on Food Systems: Europe’s drought is worsening fast, with rivers like the Rhine and Danube at historic lows and farmers from Germany to Ukraine reporting below-average harvests, while water restrictions spread across the UK, Switzerland and Germany. Water Rules for Industry: France starts a new PFAS “forever chemicals” charge from Sept. 1, charging firms €100 per 100 grams once annual discharges exceed 100 grams, with an 80% discount if proper treatment is installed. Farm Policy Tensions in Ireland: Irish fisheries ministers clash over whether fisheries talks during the EU presidency should be handled via the Hague Preferences, with nitrates derogation negotiations at the centre of the dispute. Agri-Trade and Markets: Italy’s fishermen are shifting from incinerating invasive blue crabs to exporting them, turning a Po Delta farm disaster into a growing revenue stream. Energy-Ag Link: Hungary’s GDP rose 1.7% in Q2, but the farm sector shaved 0.3 percentage points off growth, underscoring how weather and input costs keep hitting agriculture. EU Funding for Islands: The European Commission and EIB approve €2.3bn for Greece’s islands to cut emissions and boost energy security via interconnections, renewables and storage.

CAP Pressure & Weather Impacts: COPA-Cogeca warned EU crops and livestock are taking a hit from extreme heat and drought, citing major corn losses (France ~40%, Slovenia 50–70%, Italy 20–25%) plus forage shortages and higher input costs that are squeezing farm profitability. Water Stress in Farming: Algarve farmers face a decade of change as water limits, EU funding uncertainty, and an ageing workforce collide, with drought and erratic winters driving the debate on future support. Drought Aid for Food Sectors: Andalusia says it will boost 2026 support for fishing and aquaculture with €29.15m via FEMPA lines, while France is reported to be paying farmers drought aid as grass and feed constraints force adjustments. EU Food Trade & Compliance: The EU moves to suspend/halt Brazilian meat imports over compliance and safety concerns, adding pressure to animal protein supply chains. Biosecurity Alert: U.S. CBP intercepted a potentially destructive non-native straw crest moth at Detroit Metro Airport after a canine alert, underscoring how quickly pests can hitchhike via seeds and luggage. Arctic Grain Route Returns: Canada’s Port of Churchill resumed grain shipments after six years, loading ~30,000 tonnes of durum wheat bound for Europe.

Drought-hit dairy rules eased in France: After this summer’s grass and hay shortages, France temporarily relaxed protected cheese production rules for Abondance, Beaufort and Comté so herds can be fed despite failing pasture. UK rural food access push: A Herefordshire family is scaling “Whole Moo World” vending machines that sell fresh milk plus local produce in rural villages, aiming to give farmers more control over prices. Fertilizer supply security drive: Major development banks and IFIs backed a coordinated roadmap to boost fertilizer production, storage and transport, warning shocks in global nutrient supply chains hit smallholders hardest. Beef trade pressure: Rabobank flagged cooling global cattle markets and disruption to beef flows, with China quota limits reshaping where exports go. Water and farming pressure in the spotlight: UK farmers renewed calls for stronger drought support and faster action on water access as harvest-ready crops face extreme dryness. EU nature and pesticide fight: Campaigners warn the Commission’s renewed “nature laws” review could be used to weaken protections, while pesticide rule pressure grows.